Congress Must Prevent a Massive Tax Hike

In 2017, President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) into law, cutting taxes for hardworking families, encouraging investment in farms and businesses, and unleashing economic growth and prosperity. These historic tax cuts allowed millions of American workers to keep more of their hard-earned money, freed up cash for small businesses to expand and hire new employees, helped farmers finance equipment purchases, and lowered the financial costs of raising children through a stronger child tax credit and the creation of a new Paid Family and Medical Leave Tax Credit. The American economy defied the odds through meaningful deregulation and thoughtful tax reform. It grew when economists predicted it would contract, and tax revenues increased when experts predicted they would drop.

The facts back up these claims. While the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that GDP growth would be 2.2 percent in 2018 and 1.7 percent in 2019, following enactment of the TCJA, real GDP actually grew by 3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019. Similarly, Democrats claimed that cutting the corporate tax rate would result in less revenue collected, which was flat-out wrong. By reducing the U.S. corporate tax rate -- the highest in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and third highest in the world at the time -- revenues from corporate taxes increased in 2021, 2022, and 2023. That’s because the competitive tax rate gave businesses another reason to invest in America, and by keeping more of the money they earned, they had the resources to expand their operations and invest in their employees. 

Additionally, Americans across every income bracket benefitted from tax reform -- not just the wealthy as Democrats like to falsely spout. Real median household income increased by $6,000, poverty and unemployment rates plummeted to 50-year lows, and wages grew by nearly 5 percent, the fastest two-year growth period in two decades. Moreover, on average, Americans earning an annual salary of $100,000 benefitted from a 16 percent tax cut, while the bottom 20 percent of taxpayers saw their lowest federal tax rate in 40 years. Not to mention that American workers in the lowest 10 percent of the income bracket realized 50 percent higher wage growth compared to those in the highest 10 percent. These aren’t just statistics -- they represent millions of American dreams fulfilled, families able to purchase their first homes, entrepreneurs launching small businesses, and parents sending their children to college without crushing debt. As the numbers clearly demonstrate, the TCJA supercharged our economy and created a rising tide that lifted all boats.

Now, we face a critical moment for America’s economic future. Without swift congressional action, this historic economic success story could come to an abrupt halt. At the end of this year, parts of the TCJA -- also known as the Trump tax cuts -- expire, and with it, so does tax relief for our families, farmers, workers, and small businesses. If these tax cuts sunset, the average U.S. taxpayer would face a 22 percent tax increase, small businesses would face a top tax rate of nearly 44 percent, workers would have their standard deduction reduced by 50 percent, families would see their child tax credit cut in half, and farmers and family businesses would have their death tax -- or estate tax -- exemption slashed by 50 percent. Moreover, research from the National Association of Manufacturers confirms the economic ruin that could occur if the TCJA is not extended.According to their analysis, failure to extend the TCJA could result in the elimination of approximately six million American jobs, over $1 trillion in economic losses for our nation, up to $130 billion in lost wages for workers, and a potential $284 billion reduction in the manufacturing sector’s contribution to our gross domestic product (GDP). We cannot stick Americans with a massive tax bill next year and reverse the incredible victories the TCJA produced for our economy and international competitiveness.

That’s why Republicans in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate passed a concurrent budget resolution to keep the process moving forward. Through the process known as reconciliation, we can prevent a crushing tax hike on American families, farmers, and businesses before the looming deadline of December 31st with only Republican votes. Unfortunately, we can only count on our fellow Republicans to advance President Trump’s agenda, extend the TCJA, and deliver permanent tax relief. Since the beginning of this Congress, not a single Democrat has worked with us to keep taxes low and power our economy forward. They have instead resorted to lies about our pro-family, pro-worker, pro-taxpayer agenda because they know that high taxes are needed to pay for their reckless spending. 

By unlocking this budget reconciliation process, we can protect the 20 percent tax cut for small businesses, maintain the doubled standard deduction for workers, preserve the larger child tax credit for families, and build on the death tax exemption for farmers. At the same time, we can restore pro-growth tax provisions -- like immediate expensing -- that help our businesses on Main Street hire and grow, allow our energy producers to invest in infrastructure improvements and research-and-development initiatives, and rebuild our domestic manufacturing sector so that “Made in America” is not just a slogan, but a reality.

The Republican Study Committee, the largest caucus on Capitol Hill with 180 members and growing, recognizes that the TCJA has saved millions of American families money on taxes, and making these provisions permanent would ensure they can keep more money in their pockets for generations to come. If we fail to act, taxes will increase substantially and hundreds of thousands of jobs will be placed at risk at a time when the American economy is booming again.

We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity with President Trump in the White House and Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to deliver on the mandate set by the American people. From Texas to Iowa and across all 50 states, Republicans will continue to work together to extend the Trump tax cuts and cement our economy as the strongest the world has ever known.

This op-ed was originally published in National Review on April 22, 2025.